Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 8.705810 9.992209 11.378375 12.980045 14.776549 16.726188 18.998858
2026-01-18 6.635389 8.334639 10.309868 12.763279 15.715629 19.139964 23.397404
2026-01-25 5.657896 7.533879 9.823073 12.799062 16.539973 21.058837 26.899519
2026-02-01 4.931744 6.922366 9.459555 12.893878 17.379060 22.991004 30.490105
2026-02-08 4.313468 6.346022 9.038570 12.814572 17.912257 24.486470 33.524387
2026-02-15 3.796743 5.836672 8.637551 12.695538 18.342008 25.825789 36.379519
2026-02-22 3.430169 5.489556 8.410875 12.769628 19.000888 27.462749 39.666980
2026-03-01 3.197792 5.308406 8.392060 13.116093 20.034350 29.633289 43.754045
2026-03-08 2.851930 4.916619 8.026028 12.919494 20.262981 30.674720 46.297355
2026-03-15 2.466005 4.420206 7.456140 12.366659 19.919738 30.863711 47.612686
2026-03-22 2.330324 4.313154 7.473000 12.699100 20.899400 32.990261 51.789128
2026-03-29 2.188459 4.180424 7.434964 12.935675 21.734928 34.928645 55.755260
2026-04-05 1.989644 3.934172 7.198657 12.847189 22.072326 36.155513 58.747868
2026-04-12 1.803423 3.691360 6.947722 12.714557 22.327045 37.261890 61.600040
2026-04-19 1.661651 3.513921 6.790923 12.721401 22.795522 38.703692 65.005199
2026-04-26 1.549267 3.379855 6.697569 12.825834 23.422642 40.412019 68.881547
2026-05-03 1.420155 3.199749 6.506289 12.743380 23.725670 41.606370 71.979954
2026-05-10 1.299006 3.022520 6.304960 12.626145 23.956413 42.683507 74.919109
2026-05-17 1.213924 2.909919 6.214268 12.699452 24.513727 44.309315 78.794682
2026-05-24 1.168587 2.876169 6.270579 13.044399 25.560716 46.783583 84.141830
2026-05-31 1.064965 2.705817 6.047092 12.848693 25.629770 47.608688 86.775131
2026-06-07 0.934020 2.460053 5.652920 12.298545 25.022782 47.247803 87.392606
2026-06-14 0.902517 2.437676 5.710856 12.629373 26.048378 49.739223 92.930087